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Elo Hell = Poker "Bad Beat" fallacy

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magik8ball ?? Senior Member
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09-19-2012

Let's all downvote OP, because statistics don't make sense.

 
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Mister Sandbag ?? Senior Member
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09-19-2012

Quote:
Originally Posted by Metabot View Post
Except for in poker you dont have to rely on anyone but urself
And the hand (team) you're dealt. Imagine that.

 
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Leblonjames ?? Senior Member
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09-19-2012

Quote:
Originally Posted by xLostxxSoulx View Post
You're also forgetting a variable called luck. o.o
luck only exist on short term.

example : i get head 3 times in a row and i win all your money. i was lucky.

Try that 1000 times, you will most likely get 500 head and 500 tail. wheres the luck now.

 
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Ralik098 ?? Senior Member
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09-19-2012

Quote:
Originally Posted by magik8ball View Post
Let's all downvote OP, because statistics don't make sense.
Fairly sure someone is rolling through with like 10+ smurf accounts.

 
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DriedPrunes ?? Senior Member
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09-19-2012

no one really cares.

Ranked is all about hyper carrying bad players. It's easier to blame team mates than trying to hyper carry 4 bad team mates.

 
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Leblonjames ?? Senior Member
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09-19-2012

Quote:
Originally Posted by DriedPrunes View Post
no one really cares.

Ranked is all about hyper carrying bad players. It's easier to blame team mates than trying to hyper carry 4 bad team mates.
yeah because you are always the best player on your team.... seriously...

 
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Rakatash ?? Senior Member
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09-19-2012

Quote:
Originally Posted by Metabot View Post
Except for in poker you dont have to rely on anyone but urself
Somebody doesn't understand analogies. Your teammates are your hand. Sometimes, no matter how good you are, you get dealt a bad hand and can not win.

 
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Blind Pick Hero ?? Senior Member
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09-19-2012

Dunno why so many downvotes, this is a perfectly valid analogy.

 
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Neonshaman ?? Senior Member
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09-19-2012

Quote:
Let's all downvote OP, because statistics don't make sense.
Actually, yes we should. The math doesnt make sense. The law of large only applies when you have a theoretically infinite number of number sets.
People dont play an infinite number of games in League of Legends, so relying on the law of large numbers to provide a rational framework for the matchmaking demonstrates a poor understanding of statistics.
I am an economist, I do this **** for a living.

 
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Phreak Phreak's Avatar ?? Shoutcaster
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1 of 2 Riot Posts
09-19-2012

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wayfear View Post
I see a billion of these threads and I see a huge analogy to poker.

Poker, like league of legends, is a game with a tremendous amount of variance between hands (and games). In poker, like league of legends, you can lose tons of money (or Elo) even when you do everything right due to a bad beat (or trolls).

However, the fact that your relative skill level does not always affect the outcome of the hand (or game) does not mean that you do not have an edge (or lack thereof) and will not eventually go to your correct skill level. In poker, this takes literally tens of thousands of hands. I played pretty serious poker and whenever someone would ask whether they were "winning" in a game the response would always be "come back in fifty thousand hands." In league, reaching your "true" elo may also take hundreds or thousands of games.

The cause of the elo hell myth is the mistaken belief that the high variance inherent in league means that you have no control over your wins or loses. That is also the myth of the poker players who only lose to "bad beats." There are also psychological similarities, like how "raging" is close to going "on tilt," but that is outside the scope of this post.

The multiple examples of plat players dodging down to 400 elo and almost immediately carrying their way out clearly shows that the more relative advantage you have over your opponent, the more quickly your rating will adjust to your true rating:

For a good example, see:
http://na.leagueoflegends.com/board/....php?t=1826210

The fact is, the relative skill level you have above or below your opponents will cause you to gain and lose elo over the long term. Or, maybe I'm wrong, and you only lose in league because of "trolls" and only lose at poker because of "bad beats."
This is probably the best analogy I've seen. It likens the random cards of poker to random teammates in League. In the long run, your individual decision-making and skill will make you win more than you lose, if you're better than your opponents.