Originally Posted by foxfire100
I completely agree with this. ELO is about 99% luck and 1% skill. A couple weeks back I was trying to get the Janna skin when I had nine games IN A ROW with an afk on my team. My ELO fell 150 points and I gave up on ever getting the skin. I don't care how good you are - the only way to win a 4v5 is if the enemy team has a feeder from hell.
Also before the end of season reset I had around 80 wins and 65 losses, but I had 1150 ELO. So it's bad enough that whether or not you win is complete random chance, but whether you gain 5 or lose 50 is also random chance.
Of course as sample size increases your variance decreases, so the more games you play the closer your ELO gets to representing your skill. Although the number of games you need to play for your ELO to reflect your true skill (with 95% certainty) is about 2400 games. But there are people who have only played 20 games, got lucky all 20, and are going to get a Janna skin.
Yeah, ELO is bull****.
I dont argue the hance factor, weve all een there were we get those 10 games thrown by afkers, but as a general rule its not common to see a really good player at 800 ELO, even if you see many of them at around 1100-1200. Its not exact science, and certainly not very acurate, but there is a correlation. The thing is, to get a janna skin you have to be in a very elite place of the ladder, even if some cocky guys take it for granted.