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Probability of winning a promotion series.

 
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Elchulus ?? Senior Member
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02-07-2013

Quote:
Originally Posted by BlkZen View Post
No the chances of winning 2 and losing 1 arn't 50:50.
So if two people play a BO3 rock paper scissors, you're telling me that one of them wins 1/3 of the time and the other wins 2/3 of the time?

seems likely

-1
 
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Xaxziminrax ?? Senior Member
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02-07-2013

Quote:
Originally Posted by BlkZen View Post
1 = win
2 = loss
probability of advancing is number of games with 2(1)'s / total number of outcomes

111
112
121
212
211
212
221
222

3/9

or 3/8

i think im missing one
211 is a win in the series. Derp

+3
 
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HollowFayt ?? Member
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02-07-2013

Quote:
Originally Posted by BlkZen View Post
1 = win
2 = loss
probability of advancing is number of games with 2(1)'s / total number of outcomes

111
112
121
212
211
212
221
222

3/9

or 3/8

i think im missing one
Learn to count, you're missing one, and 4/8 is that you win... (1st, 2nd, 3rd, & 5th)

+0
 
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BlkZen ?? Member
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02-07-2013

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fireside Poet View Post
Except they are.

Statistically.
But there not ... statistically
1 = win
2 = loss

111
112
121
222
221
212
122



so its actually 3/8

-6
 
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davesmack ?? Senior Member
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02-07-2013

Quote:
Originally Posted by BlkZen View Post
1 = win
2 = loss
probability of advancing is number of games with 2(1)'s / total number of outcomes

111
112
121
212
211
212
221
222

3/9

or 3/8

i think im missing one


111= Advance
112= Advance
121= Advance
211= Advance

4/8, or 50% chance.

Also, you did 212 twice and left out 122.

Welcome to the 6th grade.

+8
 
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BlkZen ?? Member
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02-07-2013

Quote:
Originally Posted by davesmack View Post
222 and 221 aren't possible combinations as the series will end after the second loss. These are actually both the same outcome, 22, which brings the grand total to 8.

111= Advance
112= Advance
121= Advance
211= Advance

4/8, or 50% chance.

Welcome to the 6th grade.
Doesnt matter if the series doesnt continue on after 2 wins. Its still out of 3, statistically.

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Fireside Poet ?? Senior Member
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02-07-2013

Quote:
Originally Posted by BlkZen View Post
But there not ... statistically
1 = win
2 = loss

111
112
121
222
221
212
122



so its actually 3/8
I'm pretty sure you're trolling now.

Go to the third post. Read. Learn.

+1
 
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Teraxe ?? Senior Member
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02-07-2013

Quote:
Originally Posted by Xaxziminrax View Post
Play 6 games. You will win 3 and lose three.

Meaning with equal distribution WLWLWL, you'll advance in one, not in the other.

50/50 chance. WLW||LWL

WLW - Promoted

LWL - Not Promoted

if I win exactly 50/50 I will never be promoted. you need to have a series where you go 4 wins and 1 loss to get promoted

if I am at 60 LP and get 20 per win and 20 per loss

I need to win to get to 80 LP, now if I loss I am back to 60 and at same place. I need to win again to start series.

now I am starting my series with a 2 game win streak and need to win 2 of next 3.

-1
 
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BlkZen ?? Member
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02-07-2013

Quote:
Originally Posted by davesmack View Post
111= Advance
112= Advance
121= Advance
211= Advance

4/8, or 50% chance.

Also, you did 212 twice and left out 122.

Welcome to the 6th grade.
Well apparently a 6th grader cant count

But there not ... statistically
1 = win
2 = loss

111
112
121
222
221
212
122



so its actually 3/8

-6
 
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Xaxziminrax ?? Senior Member
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02-07-2013

Quote:
Originally Posted by BlkZen View Post
Doesnt matter if the series doesnt continue on after 2 wins. Its still out of 3, statistically.
If the end result (promotion or not) is all that matters, then yes it does.

I mean, if we wanted to be really **** about it and only counted the series that went to game 3, then we would throw out '111' '112' 221' and '222'

so that leaves '121' '211' '122' '212'

of which '121' and '211' are still wins.

Even only counting ones that went to 3 games, it's 2/4 = 1/2 = 50% chance.

+0

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