talon had the crimson elite skin. hinting at it being a secret noxian force, who could be the other members who could be the leader and what ties do they have to the lore?

Riven has a Crimson Elite skin.

I think the official answer is that skins are non-canon. Personally, I would love for the Crimson Elite to be Katarina's personal army that she is going to use to oust Swain from Noxus.

That would be a pretty cool idea.
I initially thought Riven cut ties with Noxus, but reviewing her lore I see that she is a lot like Darius and wants to serve her vision of the pure Noxian way. I am curious if her view of the pure Noxian way aligns with Swain or Katarina.

Me too

It is going to heavily depend on how much of a reform Swain attempts to invoke. Obviously he has Darius in his back pocket, and it seems to me that Darius's vision of what Noxus should be is pretty close to what Riven's ideal is, so it could be that Swain could gain Riven as a major ally.

However, Swain also has Leblanc as a major ally, and she is connected with the Black Rose. According to Leblanc's lore, having the aristocrats in charge is ideal for that group, and this would be counter to Darius's ideal Noxus, and by extension probably Riven's hope for Noxus.

Right now Swain has a nice balance between the two. Outwardly he is re-militarizing the Noxus leadership, while it seems inwardly he is ceding power to the Black Rose. Further more, Leblanc has a problem with General Du Couteau because of his loyalty to Darkwill. And now that Du Couteau has disappeared Katarina and Cassiopia are none-to-pleased and are going to be actively working on this mysterious disappearance of their dad.

So Swain is going to have a choice. Sooner or later, Katarina and Cassiopia are going to force him (either by ultimatum or just circumstance) to either give up Leblanc and the Black Rose for their involvement in the disappearance of the General (making himself the enemy of a very powerful shadow group), or he will protect her and there by potentially alienate Darius, Riven, the Du Couteau family, and piss off Talon.

I think Swain is going to protect the Black Rose since he was formerly affiliated with them. Katarina, as head of the Du Couteau house, would then form her own group, the Crimson Elite (because for some reason I think the Du Couteau-line is mostly red heads; hence "Crimson") and then go on a war path to destroy Swain, Leblanc, and the Black Rose.

Or, most likely, this is a load of fan fiction. But I think it would be sweet if it was real.

EDIT:
Swain was not involved with the invasion of Ionia. The same invasion that alienated both Riven and Sivir.

I think you're considering Swain the wrong way. Darius is a patriot, Swain is not. Darius follows Swain because he's strong and that's the Noxian way. But Swain doesn't care about the greater good of Noxus. Swain only cares about himself, he only cares about power at any cost. That's why he's allying with the Black Rose. During his League Judgement he had 2 goals- to become the ruler of Noxus and to kill Jarvan. Even LeBlanc is acting out of a desire to see the Black Rose resume their rightful place in Noxian society, but Swain is one of the few champions who voluntarily joined the League out of PURELY selfish motives.

*cough* Getting back on topic, don't expect to see anything out of the Crimson Elite, ever. It's been so long since Crimson Elite Talon that bringing that line of skins back now would require Riot to move the plot forward first and we know that will NEVER happen.

Perhaps more cynically, IronStylus has previously responded to this question with:
Which implies both that they have no current plans of continuing the line and that, even if they were interested, the actual design philosophy behind them means that it's unlikely they would be considered a worthwhile undertaking. Steel Legion and Bioforge are the order of the day.

Don't get me wrong, Arcane Azmadi. I do not believe Swain is going to make any reformations in Noxus out of altruistic motivation; he is putting Noxus back into a war path though simply because it suits his motivations. Darius believes that Swain will also remove the aristocrats from power and restore the personal strength == political power kind of ideals that he believes in; that's why he follows him.

What I'm saying is that Swain, at the moment, has allies on both sides of the political camps and what he does now is going to decide who stays as his allies. Darius believes Swain will, by selfish desire or not, lead a reform that will result in Darius's vision of Noxus to be actuality. Leblanc has less faith, but she is already a co-conspiriter; she and Swain have already plotted together for the sake of power. I don't see why they would stop now unless it got to the point that they started fighting for the same spot, yet I don't think that will happen since Leblanc and the Black Rose seem to be quite happen with playing politics from the shadows while Swain is making himself quite a public figure. Leblanc and the Black Rose have patience; they can afford to wait out Swain should he prove to be a foe instead of a friend.

Needless to say, having either Leblanc, as the leader of a very powerful organization, or Darius, whom was one of the three major candidates for the position of Grand General and Swain's competition before he supported Swain's claim over his own, would be a really bad idea. Yet both of them have a vision of Noxus that is mutually exclusive. Swain is going to have to side with one or the other at some point, and that point is going to be when he makes a hard and fast rule on reformations of the Noxian government. Either he pursues a heavily militarized view point for the politics and alienates the Black Rose, or he reestablishes the aristocracy (which I had not realized had been outed quite a while ago actually) and betrays the faith Darius has put in him.

Riven is probably going to side with Darius since their ideals seem to match up. Katarina and Cassiopeia as well on the condition Darius splits from Swain, otherwise they go on their own since they probably hate Leblanc and the Black Rose as well since she probably had something to do with their dad's disappearance.

That's how I RP it.

Since Darius and Draven are there, maybe they could be part of the Crimson Elites