This is a mathmatical breakdown of the increase in damage that armor penetration runes confer to physical attacks, and a comparison to critical damage runes.
Armor Pen Runes
Marks: 9*1.96= 17.64
Quints: 3*3.91= 11.73
Total: 29.37
What does this mean against different armor values?
Optimal Armor: 30 = (100/130) = 76.923% Damage Before Armor Pen
w/armor pen (100/130-30) = 100% Damage
31.57% Increase in Damage (100/0.76923)
Survivability Armor: 100 = (100/200) = 50% Damage Before Armor Pen
w/armor pen (100/200-30) = 58.8823% Damage
17.76% Increase in Damage (58.8823/50)
Mixed Tank: 200 = (100/300) = 33.33R% Damage Before Armor Pen
w/armor pen (100/300-30) = 37.037% Damage
11.12% Increase in Damage (37.037/33.33)
Full Physical Tank: 300 = (100/400) = 25% Damage Before Armor Pen
w/armor pen (100/400-30) = 27.027% Damage
08.10% Increase in Damage (27.027/25)
Crit Damage Runes:
Marks:9*2.23 = 20.07
Quints:3*4.46 = 13.38
Total: 33.45%
The downside with crit damage is that although it does increase the damage on a crit more then armor pen can, you will either need a very high crit chance in order to make it effective in standing fights (Tryndamere w/ Ult), or be relying on a single super crit to lay a enemy low. (Gangplank w/ Parrrley)
Unfortunately Crit Damage is Applied as a bonus percentage ontop of the 200% crit damage, giving you 233% a 16.66% Increase in damage, making it worse then armor pen as long as the target has armor.
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