Originally Posted by Lyte
I think you might have a misunderstanding of how matchmaking systems work. Almost every game with a matchmaking system tries to predict which team might be the winner statistically... in fact, I'm not even considering just eSports but many real sport ratings do the exact same thing. Not having set amounts for a Win or Loss is also one of the reasons all the matchmaker systems that do use granular Elo adjustments are more accurate too. For example, if a 0 Rating player beat a 2200 Rating player, should he still get 40? What if a 0 Rating player beats a 1100 Rating player, still gets 40? Or if you want to specifically look at games within a 'bracket,' isn't a 0 Rating player beating a 1199 Rating player more meaningful than a 0 Rating player beating a 400 Rating player?
Also, for a 1500-1800 player, it only takes a dozen games or so to climb out of 900-1100 Elo so I'm not sure where you are coming from about "Elo Hell." I also never said it takes 300 games to get to true Elo because you got players with 1-3 wins during seeding... or that players are placed too high because of players with 300 wins during seeding...
Clearly, you have a ton more metrics than we the Community have, so all our ideas, comments, and thoughts are based off our own individual experiences and not what the numbers say. Go check out a Streamer that is in the 600-900 ELO. Tell me how well he does in "climbing" out after a dozen games. In fact, I don't even know where you think a dozen games gets you from 1100 to 1500? The LoL Matchmaker has it so that, in general, you will more than likely accumulate a 50% W/L ratio. Using this idea, you will only gain about 36 ELO from 6 wis / 6 losses (assuming 13 ELO for a win, 10 for a loss because the Matchmaker put you up against "better" players for getting on a win streak or whatever). Even if you won all 12 games, that would still only be 156 ELO (if all games gave 13 ELO), which only puts you at 1256. Can you explain what numbers you are using to figure out how a 1100 player can get to 1500 from a dozen games?
I 100% think that a 0 rated player beating a 200 rated player or a 1199 rated player should give the exact same ELO amount, because for all intents and purposes, they are NOT RATED. You don't get rated until you break 1200 ELO, and as such it is unimpressive for a non-ranked player to beat another non-ranked player. Now, if a 0 rated team beats a 1250 rated team ( how this happened, I do not know), then sure, award the 0 rated team like 140 ELO, because a non-rated team beating a rated team is a big deal--its an upset.
The same is so true when you gamble on the spread in a Football game, for example. You don't bet money on who is going to win, you bet that a team either will win by X amount, less than X amount, more than X amount, or will flat out lose. The predictions they use come directly from HOW THOSE TEAMS HAVE PLAYED AGAINST EACH OTHER IN THE PAST. It is very rare for the same 5 players to play against the same 5 players over and over in LoL, as such it is highly inaccurate to determine if one Mid-Lane opponent is going to beat another, or even if a team is going to beat another, without any data about these exact same teams playing against each other before.
Edit: What I was saying is that you said it takes 300 wins to get to your true ELO. Therefore, using my understanding, a player with 300+ wins at 900 ELO belongs there. When a player first plays ranked and they are on a team with a bunch of people with 300+ wins against a bunch of players with 1-3 wins, the team with 300+ wins is more than likely going to win, because that team is more proficiency in the "900 ELO mindset" as well as having a lot of experience in the game.
3) Provisional Matches in Ranked
When a player joins Ranked for the first time, the system starts them at 1200 Elo and begins their "placement matches." Unlucky strings of losses or lucky streaks of wins can propel a player into an Elo tier they do not belong in. Alternatively, players generally do not like playing with or against players in their placement matches and seeing they have only 1-9 wins.
^ That is you saying the seeding process can place someone in a bracket they do not belong in. This has a LOT to do with during seeding being placed on a team with a bunch of people who have 1-3 wins against a team with a bunch of 300+ wins. Data can show you this.