I'll start off saying i was garbage S1 and was 1750-1950s S2, so im not a pro, but i do know how to play. I've gotten 3 accounts from sub 1200s to 1500+, so im also pretty consistent, and know how to win in solo que as well as having a grasp of what works and what doesn't in a variety of elo's. I main top lane. i love it. in fact it's the only role that doesn't bore the **** out of me. sadly i feel that s3 changes will make the lane both boring and stagnant, forcing you into only playing a few champs that actually have the possibility to do well. let me explain.
I'll open with going over the changes for S3 and then explaining why this will make top lane extremely boring to play, and inevitably hurt bruisers and melee champs in general.
1) boots nerfed, base movement speed buffed.
This will be the largest and most impacting change to top lane. EVERYONE will start cloth 5 now. the lane will be nearly impossible to get early kills in. too much armor and too much sustain. early game champs will be hit extremely hard by this change, as will physical melee bruisers, especially one's with low/bad mana pools such as olaf or j4
2) increased jungle difficulty
I don't mind this change tbh. That said, it was HUGE for top lane. in fact top lane may have been the only lane actually effected by this change. increased jungle difficulty means most ganking junglers will not be able to gank early (levels 1-4). This puts top laners at significantly less risk than before, and also allows them to ( u guessed it!) start cloth 5.
3) Increased minion damage, removed indomitable (HOLY WOW, REALLY?)
This one is huge. i have not play tested the change, so it may be more minor than i realize. however, the buff will hurt melee champions in lane quite a bit, especially when their opponents are ranged (teemo against irelia for example). What does this change do you ask? it makes it impossible to win early trades as a melee champion. this is extremely bad as 80% of melee champions are geared towards early-mid game, and most ranged champions have a very weak early game. let me explain a bit further.
vlad is a common top laner. any good top laner knows u have to trade with vlad early if u want to have a chance to win the lane. this forces you (a melee champion) to take minion aggro quite often. what happens now that all vlad has to do is sit and auto attack you to win the trade? u cant trade early because the minion damage is too heavy, and no vlad will stand in front of his creeps. so he gets to essentially free farm and just out scale you, which is bad because as a melee champion you peak at around 15-25 minutes.
4) Removed ninja tabi's passive effecting minions
same thing as removing indomitable, except now it will still be difficult to trade in lane as a melee champion.
5) no equivalent of ninja tabi for stopping casters/no ninja tabi cost increases
i still don't fully understand why we get to have obscenely overpowered boots that anyone can buy for very cheap that mitigates a HUGE portion of early game damage from physical damage champions, but there is nothing for stacking early against casters and ap bruisers. rumble gets to buy ninja tabi against renekton, what can renekton buy? a null mantle? and build mercs? cool i just spent all my gold on some boots with very little drop in your dps, while u get to buy an item that cuts my damage by 1/4 and have money left over for a dorans....
6) no real itemization for bruisers.
Atmas remains the same. maw gets nerfed, all the while on hit and AP champs get like 5 new items. No good ad caster items as of yet (we have only been waiting for like 2 years, im sure you guys are on it!), and still no way for bruisers to scale into late game outside of dedication 3-4 item slots for pure tank items and still dieing in the first round of cool downs in a team fight.
So what do all of these changes culminate to?
Top lane will start seeing fewer and fewer bruisers. Cloth 5 will make early game physical bruisers obsolete, as u just cant do enough damage to deny your opponent.
ranged champions will just be better. this is inevitable. just pick someone with decent scaling that has range, and ur golden top lane. i wouldn't be surprised if i started seeing champs like cass or ryze top lane very frequently. as long as you aren't an idiot, you can't lose to a melee champion.
Ap champions will be the new god's of top lane. no way around this. they have too good if itemization to mitigate any threat, they have range, they scale well, and most of them have as much if not more utility than melee champs, while not needing to draw minion aggro to trade.
Top lane will become stagnant. Melee champions will be rare, ranged AP champs will be the god tier top laners, and all top lane will be is a passive farm fest. aggression from a melee champion will be punished extremely hard, forcing many to sit idly by while they get out scaled by their opponent. ranged champions, especially ranged AP champions will be punished far less than melee, so at the end of the day, people will just go to all ranged champs.
oh, and let's not forget the mastery that reduces slows by like 30%, the phage/tforce slow nerfs, and all the movement speed masterie's you can now take. yea...
so how exactly am i supposed to kill anything with a melee champion?