I just want to say that cyralol is wrong about the 50/50 and 99/1 example. The odds of getting a SPECIFIC roll of 50/50 IE: hthhtththt.... is the same as getting any 1 of the 100 ways to get 99/1. There are, however, many thousands of thousands of ways to flip a coin 100x and get 50/50, while there are only 100 ways to flip the coin and get 99/1.
I only read that far into the post because I have to go, but this bugged me since he was getting thumbs up while misinforming. His point may otherwise be valid but that was untrue.
"Chance to get 50/50 is like 10^27 times more likely than 99/1." This is exactly right. To put it more simply for those statistically challenged:
For 100 coin flips, the probability of 50 heads/50 tails is 8%, while the probability of 99 heads/1 tail is 0.0000000000000000000000000008%.
The insults about high-school education should be stopped regardless, especially when you are so very wrong on a subject and have so many obvious spelling mistakes yourself.
Quote:
*Your impact on this game is being one player out of ten. The weight of your skill in this impacting odd varies depending if your playing tank, support, or carry - which is largely determined by the order in which you picked your champion, something which you have little control over.
You can pick whatever type of champ you want, at whatever pick you want. Picking to help bad players will not advance you. Pick to advance yourself if you are "better than your Elo and stuck in Elo hell."
*Than you have to factor in that you really cannot expect to be outside the top thirtieth percentile - anyone assuming better than that is probably letting their ego do the talking.
FYI, THEN* Aside from that, what would the thirtieth percentile matter? Is that a magic number where you can start to carry any game at low Elo?
*Than you have to factor in the natural game weight to fifty-fifty created by the game purposefully imbalancing teams (to give purple - I believe it is - the advantage).
The system doesnt intentionally create unbalanced teams, it is simply impossible to create perfectly fair teams. In any case, EVERY game is skewed in your favour because you are higher than your Elo says, right?
*Than you have to factor in the stronger tendency towards randomization of created by leavers. Assuming your never a leaver, this is a sixty-fourty.
fifty-forty, another stat that is aimed at pushing those who deserve it higher in Elo
*Than you have to factor in the odds that your playing against someone that similarly doesn't belong in the ELO bracket. This is much more complicated variable, but a particularly problematic one created by the large influx of new players at 1200 and the high random variance. This means the closer to 1200 you get, the more noise this variable creates.
This factor is based on the assumption the system is already flawed as far as placement matches go. If the system does work and places players near their true Elo, this creates minimal noise in the equation or even no noise at all.
*Than you have to factor in the odds of you personally having internet, real life, or computer troubles. While some people might suffer sever lag or wife/girlfriend/housemate/kid agro one out of ten or fifteen games, this is another variable that varies significantly. Not that while if you have to AFK you may deserve to lose, one might assume the infrequency with which this happens makes its impact minimal, I'm merely pointing out that its impact is cumulative with many other factors.
This factor is silly, every single person p[laying has this, and this is a direct link to your Elo. If you are a person who has to leave often, you will always have a lower Elo. Elo isnt only based on skill, it is based on everything that happens from the second picks start to the second the game ends, including attitudes, skill and distractions among many other things.
*Further, you have to acknowledge variance created by Riot's servers.
This would affect everyone equally, so it can be ignored entirely.
*Than some big game play factors. You have limited control of what your team bans and picks. There is a lot of situations where even if your team picks a more or less suitable team, the odds are decreased by the other team via planning or chance picking a team with actual synergy.
Both teams have similar odds of this happening, except we know for sure that you belong at a higher Elo, so that 20% of the time you get to pick bans or counter-pick you are guaranteed to do it right, and hence have a higher chance yet again of succeeding. This is another point against your entire argument
*Than you have to factor in the odds that if your an early pick, your team may wind up with a completely screwball composition. While its still possible to win with no AP or no tank or what not, it decreases the weight of your impact further.\
This guarantees that your first pick will be the best one in the game, and it guarantees you remove the best champion from the enemy. Outside of your pick, both teams have the exact same chance of picking poorly, so yet again this is only favourable to your Elo.
*Additionally if you pick early and are the substantial weight of your team's chance to win are fairly hard counter picked without your team mitigating it, your weight on the odds is further decreased - this is particularly prevalent if you are forced by your teams picks to lane vs your counter pick.
If the enemy is competent enough to counter pick you, your team is competent enough to counter pick them back. Moot point again except you got the champion you wanted to play and are best at. Yet again another force which should push you higher in Elo.
*And quite a few more factors, but I'm getting bored.
I dont think you made a single point here.
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My response to your first point, which I feel important to expand on:
"You can pick whatever type of champ you want, at whatever pick you want. Picking to help bad players will not advance you. Pick to advance yourself if you are "better than your Elo and stuck in Elo hell."
Elo is not only based on skill, it is based on ability to win. You could be a 2500 Elo carry and then pick supports every game in low Elo because your team never does, and lose every game because you are a 600 Elo player while on supports. granted you are skilled, but you are too dumb to use your skill. Hence, you dont deserve that 2500 Elo, you deserve the 600.
If you really feel Elo hell exists check my past game histories, 9 wins 1 loss in ranked. I am running 70+% wins in ranked after dodging to sub 800 Elo, and now Im back near 1200 after only a couple of days.
