I'm saying it's all a bloody DISTRACTION
Malzahar and Kassadin's fight wouldn't have made ANY news if Kog'Maw hadn't led summoners right to the scene of the conflict. All the political tensions would be covering the front page allowing Malzahar to carry out whatever mission he has.
The quote from -some person- got a response acknowledging that they know there is a threat facing the Black Rose from LeBlanc herself.
And OF COURSE the inhibitor isn't near Kalamda. If you're attempting to rip open a dimension to get your army through to carry out a world-ending prophecy, you aren't going to make a scene about it.
I understand Malzahar failed, but that's because Kog'Maw is an idiot and led summoners to the scene, in which it was stopped. We know Karthas died protecting the Inhibitor, and no change in the magical area was affected. Even if Malzahar did destroy the inhibitor, the League stopped him before he could open the portal. That, and if it's anything like the Icathian disaster, his army of sacrifices would have to be moved to that location to begin with. That calls to much attention so Malzahar would have to take it one step at a time, destroy the inhibitor, then move his worshippers in, and sacrifice them all in a limit-less zone.
They said the Void doesn't have the ability to mind control people, but considering how well Malzahar is influencing massive groups of worshippers, I wouldn't put it past them to wander into a war-zone to cause some chaos in the name of the Void.
It can't be to difficult to delay an interrogation 6 times over a -background check-. Either someone didn't want Jarvan to interrogate the soldier, or it wasn't really a soldier, so they couldn't FIND a background, which was putting them in a nasty situation of figuring who was responsible. By that time the prisoner was already dead.
Just because Swain might not have killed him, doesn't mean the War wouldn't give him the promotion. The only thing probably going through his mind is to prevent any attempts at resurrecting Darkwill so that he can't reclaim his position. Swain is just going with the flow because of his extreme ambitions. He has a hatred for Jarvan, and anything that works in his favor he's probably not going to question it to much.
This is all just my idea.
In short, just to get my grand-idea in place...
A third party (I'd bet the Void) is attempting to make a move. Malzahar has been sent here, and is creating a cult following. Kog'Maw is here to learn. Cho'Gath is a master tactician. Assuming Cho'Gath is under watch, then the orders would have been given quite some time before his acceptance into the League, or else these orders would be over-heard by the League.
Now, Malzahar has his orders, and it's my bet that he wants to re-create Icathia, as i've said repeatedly. Lots of people, an area uninhibited by magic, and he can release an army of Void-Born. This takes time though, and his movements are being spot-lighted by Kassadin's constant interference (And now, of course, Karthas interference), so he needs to get attention away from him. Word reaches him that there's tension growing in Kalamda over recent discovery of minerals and such, and that Demacia and Noxus (who already hate eachother) have huge armies there.
Wow, sounds like a good way to create a smoke-screen eh? Malzahar sends a follower into the camp as a worker (They're flooding in left and right, so I don't think it'd be to noticeable) and send this follower disguised as a Demacian into the Noxus side, and blow it up. Oh man, now Noxus looks bad, and Demacia gets the contract. But that would end a little to easily...heck you've caused the sides to almost join together in the recovery effort. Can't have that can you?
Let's reveal our little henchman and have his admit to Swain that he killed the Noxian and caused the situation in the first place.
Now, first off, how did this Demacian soldier just make his way to the Noxian side and just say 'hey I killed that dude, orders of the prince, will you be so kind as to arrest me?' Swain is really ticked and marches right up to the King and throws this prisoner at his feet. The King is taken aback by what appear to be his own sons orders. They throw him in prisoner to interrogate him.
Now this prisoner could say a few things. 'Yeah, i did it, what of it?' but for all they know it could be a Noxian soldier or a puppet of swain, whatever. Anyways, Jarvan could easily tell his dad that it wasn't his orders, because i doubt Demacia wants a War, because they nearly won the mining contract, which was what the whole thing was about.
So what happens? They throw him in jail and wait for the interrogation. Right now however, Malzahar is attempting to make his move to destroy an inhibitor. The League has all eyes on the two Nexi in Kalamda, and is waiting to intervene should anything serious happen. Out of the corner of their eyes, they notice Kog'maw is going a little Hay-wire, and they look away from Kalamda for a few moments to figure out what's going on.
-Gasp- they've discovered a dead Karthas, and Malzahar and Kassadin fighting once more. League officials get Karthas out of there (even though he wasn't in to much harm...) and the press manages to get a few words about 'protecting the inhibitor'. Malzahar and Kassadin are spotlighted and Kog'Maw just wanders off to do his own thing. Kog'Maw obviously screwed up.
Notice though, nobody cares. Malzahar and Kassadin are fighting, and someone (assumingly Malzahar) is trying to destroy the inhibitor. Those things were put in place to stop the Rune Wars, to protect the whole of RuneTerra. What do they do? Not really anything. They just kind of 'well whatever, they're still aloud to fight and we'll "punish them" but we can't tell you anymore'. So Malzahar failed, Kog'Maw is an idiot, and the conflict in Kalamda has been...delayed?
Their big plan fails because of a few loose ends, and suddenly Jarvan is delaying the sacrifice of the prisoner? Well...that messed up. Let's kill the prisoner, he's lost his use to us, and hopefully this will stir up a distraction so we can try again. Nobody claims to have killed the prisoner, but both sides are a little riled up. Military forces on BOTH sides increase a-lot, and everyone is on edge now.
Well this didn't create the desired effect, but something interesting has happened. Darkwill himself has left the super-protected safety of Noxus and is headed to Kalamda to end this fighting. But look at this...this entire area doesn't really have inhibitors. What it does have, is two Nexi spewing out enormous amounts of energy. The League is all over it, but with that much power you could waltz in, cause all sorts of chaos, and waltz back out. Now the League has tights eyes all over Kalamda. We know for a fact they're watching Swain and Jarvan, because the writer goes out of their way to say -well Swain is seen walking around but he never leaves camp. Same for Jarvan, nobody sees him leave his tent at any time. So tight eyes are being kept on both sides, but someone missed something. Swain leaves camp with his patrol to greet Darkwill, only to discover Darkwill is dead.
I don't know about you, but if I were in Swain's position, and this opportunity laid itself infront of me on a golden tray, I wouldn't hesitate to jump in and tie up any ends. Someone has killed the King, and Swain just loves this. First thing to do, make sure he's dead for good. Solution? Quickly torch everything. Now, I don't think Swain himself got a good look at the bodies for a cause of death. His primary concern would be to get rid of the bodies immediately. Next thing, start a war.
Oh what's this? The two biggest parties on the continent have camps, right next to eachother, with their leaders and powerful soldiers, ALL THE WAY on the OTHER END of the continent. The League can't spare to leave their sights from this tension filled field, so what does this say? Malzahar isn't under watch anymore. Kog'Maw can't interrupt again, because if the League takes their eyes off the fight for even a second, it could erupt into war.
So under the shroud of all of this, Malzahar has more-than-likely moved out to set his plan once more into motion. Karthas proved no help last time, and I think Malzahar stands a pretty fair chance at beating Kassadin, especially if Kog'Maw or Cho'Gath happen to be with them. Kog'Maw walked out of the League without restraints before, Cho'Gath can probably do the same thing, and Malzahar can move his followers into position, blow open a hole in the dimension with his mass followers re-creating Icathia, and all the while Noxus and Demacia are at eachothers throats.
I will admit, it is a little far-fetched, but it just seems plausible. The Void being in the background of the JoJ articles would be a good thing for their group, avoiding attention is their whole plan after-all.